Indonesian Stock Market Reaction to U.S. Liberation Day Tariff on Export Firms
Isi Artikel Utama
Abstrak
Purpose: This study examines the reaction of Indonesia's capital market to the U.S. Liberation Day Tariff announcement on April 2, 2025, focusing on export-exposed firms listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).
Methodology: An event study is applied across 62 IDX-listed firms over a 21-trading-day window, analyzing abnormal returns and trading volume activity using the market-adjusted model and Wilcoxon signed rank test.
Results: The tariff announcement produced a significant negative difference in abnormal returns, with investors perceiving the policy as bad news for export-oriented firms. The average abnormal return was partially significant, with an immediate event-day response and persistent negative reactions post-announcement. Trading volume activity showed no significant difference, reflecting the caution of investors.
Conclusions: Price movements support semi-strong market efficiency, while the absence of a volume response confirms that price and volume reactions do not always co-move under the same informational events.
Limitations: The Market Adjusted Model assumes homogeneous firm risk, sector-level comparative analysis was not conducted, and domestic macroeconomic variables were not controlled for.
Contribution: This study provides novel multisector evidence on how an emerging market responds to unilateral trade protectionism, contributing to the literature on event studies, signaling theory, and trade policy reactions.
Rincian Artikel
Referensi
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